• OPEC: Long-term investment is an urgent need for the oil industry .. Demand will continue to grow until 2045


    ​Osama Suleiman from Vienna​

    Tension continued in the crude oil markets, due to the lack of stability and the state of uncertainty dominated as a result of the repercussions of the second, more ferocious wave of the Corona epidemic and the closure of most of the European and American economies, and the expansion of negative pressures on the outlook for global demand for crude oil.
    The crude oil market concluded its dealings on the decline in oil prices by about 2 percent, as a result of other pressures from the oversupply due to the increase in Libyan production and the slowdown in the global economic recovery, while prices gained on a weekly basis, as both Brent and US crude achieved an increase of 8 percent, as a result of The new Corona vaccine and hopes of overcoming the international crisis under a new US administration.
    In this context, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC stressed that in the long term, all forms of energy - including oil and natural gas - will be necessary to support the recovery from the Corona pandemic and meet future energy needs, noting that oil is expected to retain the largest share in Energy mix in terms of demand through 2045.
    A recent OIC report quoted Secretary-General Mohamed Barkindo as stressing the importance of strong, long-term reinvestment in the oil industry.
    The report on OPEC’s participation in both the 22nd Ministerial Meeting of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum and the World Economic Cooperation Forum stated that OPEC, in dealing with international crises, adheres to a system of shared responsibility and collective action in order to achieve the targeted success.
    The report added, quoting Muhammad Barkindo, stressing the importance of cooperation and multilateral dialogue to face the global challenges facing the industry, stressing OPEC's endeavor to unite with all industry stakeholders to combat the ongoing challenges resulting from the Corona pandemic and its massive repercussions on energy markets.
    The report predicted that natural gas will be the fastest-growing fossil fuel between 2019 and 2045, and after oil, it will remain the second largest contributor to the energy mix in 2045, at 25 percent.
    He pointed to the increasing importance of technology on both the supply and demand sides, noting its ability to improve efficiencies, provide cleaner end uses for products, and enhance the environmental footprint, adding that "this will be key to a comprehensive approach in enhancing the environmental credentials of the entire energy mix.​

    He pointed to the world's struggle with an international health pandemic that killed countless people and inflicted massive damage on the global economy and energy markets, noting the suffering of huge drops in demand for both oil and gas, stressing the continuation of resistance in the efforts of OPEC and its partners to restore balance and stability.
    He noted the importance of Algeria, which holds the rotating presidency of OPEC and the Gas Forum, in playing a decisive role in declaring cooperation and supporting continuous efforts to restore balance to the oil market, restore economic growth and rebuild investor confidence at the global level.
    The "OPEC" report stated that the organization seeks to unite with all stakeholders in the industry to face the ongoing challenges resulting from the Corona pandemic and its huge implications for energy and market stability, pointing to Barkindo saying, "We simply cannot do this alone."
    He pointed out to the Secretary-General's affirmation, "We greatly value this partnership and look forward to closing cooperation with our partners in the World Economic Forum in the coming months and years."
    The report noted that OPEC, with all parties, sought to assess the future development of natural gas in a very difficult energy environment, indicating that the organization is particularly interested in discussions related to the future role of natural gas, whether it would be considered "transitional fuel" or "intended fuel."
    He pointed out that future developments in this regard depend on many contributing factors, yet Barkindo stresses that we can rest assured of the fact that both oil and gas will continue to play a prominent role in the global energy mix and together will account for more than half of the mix in the coming years.
    The report pointed out that OPEC's global oil forecast for 2020 for this year included for the first time the contribution of experts from the Economic Cooperation Countries Forum on the topic of LNG under the title "Prospects for LNG in the Post-Epidemic Era," noting that OPEC Secretary-General Mohamed Barkindo welcomed Nikolai Shulginov, the new Russian Energy Minister, expressed his aspiration to work closely with him to deepen the partnership between OPEC and Russia.
    For its part, the International Oil Information Agency, Platts, stated that oil futures prices stabilized at the end of last week, in light of the continuing high incidence of Coronavirus in Europe and the United States, which replaced news of promising vaccines earlier in the week.

    A recent report by the agency stated that oil prices have gone through the worst situation this year, and prices are likely to remain trapped around the level of $ 40 until Europe is on the other side of the Corona wave, indicating that demand forecasts are difficult for the next few months, but they are very optimistic for the second half of the year. 2021.
    The report stated that many European countries recorded a wide increase in cases of Coronavirus, which imposed stricter closures, which put more negative pressure on oil demand in the coming months, and that governments in Western Europe strengthened restrictions on economic activity and reimposed the closure in some cases.
    He explained that travel demand is likely to decline by 10 percent, at least - according to the American Automobile Association - despite the holiday and vacation season in the United States, pointing out that the reduction in demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel is expected to push refineries. This has led to reduced operations to boost margins, as nearly 10 percent of US refining capacity is already inactive due to lower demand, and many refiners believe the market position is still insufficient to support margins.
    The report quoted international analysts as confirming that the news of the new and reliable vaccine is very impressive, and it certainly has a broad positive impact on the market, but no one knows a clear way of how to improve demand in the near term and certainly not within the next two or three months.
    On the other hand, and with regard to prices, oil prices fell by about 2 percent, on Friday, affected by the increase in Libyan production and fears that the escalation of Coronavirus infections may slow the global economic recovery and oil demand.
    Brent crude fell 75 cents, equivalent to 1.7 percent, to settle at $ 42.78 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 99 cents, or 2.4 percent, to end the session at $ 40.13 a barrel. On a weekly basis, they both achieved an increase of 8 percent.
    A Libyan oil source told "Reuters", "Libya's oil production rose to 1.2 million barrels per day, up from one million barrels per day, as announced by the country's National Oil Corporation on the seventh of November."

    The negative sentiment increased as a result of indications of rising production in the United States. According to data from Baker Hughes, the number of operating American oil rigs increased by ten to 236 this week, the highest level since May.
    What also put pressure on prices, US government data reported that crude inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels last week, while analysts had expected a decline of 913 thousand barrels.
    New cases of coronavirus in the United States and elsewhere are at unprecedented levels, and tightening restrictions will lead to a recovery in fuel demand at a slower pace than many had hoped. West Texas Intermediate and Brent contracts jumped this week after data showed that an experimental COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and Germany's BioNTech was 90 percent effective.
    But last Thursday, the International Energy Agency said, "The global demand for oil is unlikely to receive a large batch of the vaccine until several months of the new year 2021."​

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