• 3 main sectors driving demand for oil .. Petrochemicals, land transport and aviation


    Osama Soliman from Vienna​

    A fresh optimism over the US-China trade negotiations has supported the rise in oil prices at the end of last week, with the benchmark crude recording its second weekly gain in a row, Brent crude up 1.3 percent, and West Texas Intermediate gained 0.8 percent.​

    OPEC and non-OPEC producers are preparing for a new round of discussions and assessments of market developments at the ministerial meetings on December 5 and 6, amid expectations of an agreement to extend the production cut to face an oversupply next year.​

    ​In this context, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries confirmed the Petroleum "OPEC" commitment to support the stability of a sustainable market and provide a platform from which to review and analyze and assess how it can develop scenery oil and energy, which occurs annually through the annual report of the organization to the expectations of the global oil market.​

    ​He explained that the main sectors for the growth of demand for oil in the long term include petrochemicals at a rate of 4.1 million barrels a day, ground transportation at a rate of 2.9 million barrels per day, and flying at a rate of 2.4 million barrels per day, however, will see non-member States in the "OPEC" since mid-2020 steady decline.

    The report was likely that he would ask the member states of the Organization of "OPEC" meet most of the requirements of the demand for long-term, where it is expected that the demand for liquids "OPEC" is increasing to about 44.4 million barrels per day in 2040, up from 36.6 million barrels per day in 2018.​

    A report by the International Organization - on the visit of the Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo to the UAE - that the issue of sustainable market stability and help to rebalance the market clearly can also be seen in the success of the Declaration of Cooperation between 24 OPEC producers and independent, as well as in the ratification of The "Cooperation Pact" last July provides a long-term institutional framework for this historic cooperation.​

    He pointed out that the most prominent projections of `` OPEC '' in the coming years is the rise in demand for primary energy by 25% between 2018 and 2040, pointing out that this is due to the expansion of the global economy, which is expected to be in 2040 times the current size.
    The report predicted that global population growth would reach 9.2 billion in 2040, an increase of 1.6 billion over the current world population.
    Moreover, it is also important to remember that about 1 billion people still do not have access to electricity, about 3 billion still lack clean energy fuels and that there is a global commitment to meet the key challenge of energy poverty.
    The report stressed that all forms of energy will be required to help meet this growing demand in a sustainable manner, and that renewable energy sources are witnessing the largest growth in percentage terms with a significant expansion in OPEC member countries, especially in the UAE, where natural gas is the largest Growth in volume, oil remains the most important fuel with the acquisition of a larger share in the energy mix to 2040.
    He pointed to the growth of oil demand from outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development at an expected rate of 21.4 million barrels per day by 2040, compared to 2018, noting that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will reduce growth by 9.6 million barrels per day, the total oil demand is estimated at 110.6 million barrels per day by 2040.​
    ​​He pointed to the possibility of significant excess refining capacity in the medium term, and it is estimated that the global oil trade and condensate will remain relatively stable at about 38 million barrels per day between 2018 and 2025, before rising to about 42 million barrels per day by 2040.
    The report pointed out that the main route of oil trade from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region depends on the main axis is the UAE, and that the total exports of the Middle East is expected to increase by about seven million barrels per day between 2025 and 2040 to reach about 23 million BPD.
    Investment needs throughout the exploration, downstream and downstream areas are estimated at $ 10.6 trillion in the period up to 2040.
    He pointed to the focus of various OPEC studies and data on the review of a large number of technological innovations and policy issues and energy issues related to sustainable development.
    The report said that one of the key messages to highlight is the importance of technologies in reducing emissions, pointing out that the industry needs to search for more efficient technological solutions everywhere across all available energies and to take advantage of all available and innovative options to reduce emissions from the energy sector. However, the oil and gas industries must be part of the solution.
    He pointed out that OPEC studies do not represent a kind of forecast, and should be seen as a reference tool to stimulate discussion and dialogue among industry stakeholders, pointing out that this is vital considering the crossroads, in which the energy industry finds itself.
    The report reiterated that OPEC continues to push the boundaries of its research and provide more data and analysis, which can stimulate both debate and action.
    Oil futures rose nearly 2 percent at the end of last week, as comments by a senior US official bolstered optimism about a US-China trade deal, but fears of increased supplies are curbing prices.
    Brent crude rose $ 1.02, or 1.6 percent, to settle at $ 63.30 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 95 cents, or 1.7 percent, to close at $ 57.72 a barrel.
    The benchmarks posted their second weekly gain in a row, with Brent rising 1.3 percent and West Texas Intermediate gaining 0.8 percent.
    A monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) has weighed on prices as the agency estimated non-OPEC supply growth would jump to 2.3 million BPD next year, from 1.8 million BPD in 2019, attributed to the US and Brazilian output Norway and Guyana​.
    OPEC Secretary-General Mehmet Barkindo painted a more upbeat picture earlier this week after he said that growth in rival US output would slow in 2020.
    OPEC said demand for its oil would average 29.58 million BPD next year, 1.12 million BPD below 2019, suggesting a surplus of about 70,000 BPD in 2020.
    The OPEC + producer alliance is expected to discuss the policy of restricting production at a meeting in Vienna on December 5 and 6, and the current coalition agreement on production will continue until March.
    The number of rigs in the United States fell by 10 to 674 in the week ended November 15 compared to last week, said Baker Hughes, the US oilfield products and services company, in its weekly oil drilling report​.
    According to the agency "Bloomberg" about the report that the number of US gas excavators fell by one rig to 129 rigs in the same week.
    The total number of excavators in the country was 806, while the excavators of various uses were unchanged at three.
    On an annual basis, the number of oil rigs fell by 214 rigs, and in Canada, the total number of excavators 134 rigs, down six excavators last week.​
    ​The number of oil rigs decreased by nine to 88, and the number of gas rigs rose by three to 46.
    On an annual basis, the number of oil rigs in Canada fell by 30.​

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