• Oil prices are supported by trade war hopes and fears from lack of supplies


    Osama Soliman from Vienna​.

    Oil analysts predicted the continuation of the price gains achieved by oil during the past week, Brent crude 3.7 percent and US crude 3.6 percent, in the first weekly gain in three weeks, stressing at the same time the need to keep oil supplies strong and adequate to meet the needs of demand and compensation lack of fields.

    Analysts attribute the continuing price gains mainly to the high level of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, as well as positive expectations about the possibility of progress in the file of trade war between the United States and China.​

    They noted that oil prices are being supported by news that OPEC and non-OPEC producers are likely to deepen production cuts during the expanded ministerial meeting in December in Vienna.​Ross Kennedy, managing director of energy services group QHI, says oil prices are closer to record highs due to persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East and better hopes of containing the trade war. Trade negotiations will quickly reflect positively on the outlook for global economic growth and hence on oil demand levels.​

    Kennedy pointed out that oil prices jumped sharply after the terrorist attack on September 14 last September on Saudi oil facilities and then fell to about $ 66 a barrel because of the rapid and robust recovery plan that took place in the Saudi oil sector and quickly compensated for the volume of disrupted production, and helped to US President Donald Trump has pledged to release some strategic oil reserves to compensate for the market shortage, noting that the damage has been contained for now, but prices could rise further if any military action occurs in the Middle East. For his part, tells the "economic", Vittorio Musazi, director of international relations at the Italian energy company Sanam, that prices closer to the rise due to supply concerns from the Middle East, which controls one-third of the global oil trade, in return there is downward pressure highlighted by the continued rise US inventories, which inhibit the prospect of price rises, reinforce worries about weak demand, and the prospect of stalled trade negotiations and its impact on the expectation of a global economic downturn. 

    The geopolitical factors that ignite prices surprised the market again at the end of the week and attracted strong prices in the upside, he said. Hold up long if the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing falter or fail.​

    David Lisma, an analyst at South Court International, said the rise in prices at the end of last week was driven by the prospect of progress in containing the US-China trade dispute, giving a glimmer of hope for a recovery in demand, and possibly pushing forward. Many international banks are adjusting to their previous bearish outlook for oil demand.​ 

    In turn, "Al-Eqtisadiah", Winnie Akilo, an American analyst at Africa Engineering International said that despite all the speculation surrounding weak demand next year, a realistic reading of the market indicates the need for every barrel of oil, which requires strengthening new projects and investments, despite the volatility of prices and some of the pessimistic visions offered by those who wish to remove oil from leading the global energy mix, stressing that the oil industry will remain healthy despite the growing controversy over its future due to the pressures of climate protection.​

    Akilo pointed out that the level of supplies should remain strong and appropriate to the needs of demand and compensate for the natural decline of fields, pointing to the importance of opening the way for a new group of producers who are keen to invest in oil projects in parallel with renewable energy projects, and to support the future of energy in the world.

    Oil prices rose more than 2 percent at the end of last week, as optimism surrounding the Sino-US trade talks helped lift investor sentiment.
    According to "Reuters", Brent crude oil futures ended the trading session up $ 1.41, or 2.4 percent, to settle at $ 60.51 a barrel.
    U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $ 1.15, or 2.2 percent, to settle at $ 54.70 a barrel.
    The gains were constrained by the International Energy Agency's forecast for weak oil demand in 2020, and the benchmark crude posted its first weekly gain in three weeks, with Brent rising 3.7 percent and US crude 3.6 percent.​
    Gabon, on the other hand, told OPEC that it would fully comply with its pledges to cut oil production under a 2019 supply deal, the latest sign of the group's bid to improve compliance before its next meeting in December.
    The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil markets had recovered rapidly from the middle of last month and could face a supply surplus next year as global demand slows​.
    The turbulent economic outlook for 2020 prompted the IEA to cut its forecast for oil demand growth by 100,000 BPD to 1.2 million BPD.
    US energy companies last week increased the number of oil rigs operating for the first time in eight weeks, although energy services companies are cutting jobs as most producers implement plans to cut spending on new drilling.
    Baker Hughes Energy Services, in its closely watched weekly report, said companies added two oil rigs in the week ending October 11, bringing the total number of active rigs to 712, and in the same week a year ago there were 869. On.
    The number of oil rigs, a preliminary indicator of future production, has fallen over the past 10 months as independent exploration and production companies cut spending on new drilling while focusing more on profit growth rather than increased production.
    In contrast, the number of active natural gas rigs in the United States last week fell by one to 143, the lowest level since January 2017​.

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