Osama Suleiman from Vienna
Crude oil prices fell again under pressure from doubts about the recovery in fuel demand due to the accelerated injuries of the Corona pandemic in the United States and the world, as well as concern about the availability of supplies after the decision of "OPEC +" to ease production cuts restrictions starting this month.
Specialists and oil analysts told to Al-Eqtisadiah"There are wide challenges facing energy companies, especially in the United States, with doubts surrounding the recovery of global demand,", pointing to the latest data indicating that the volume of collective debt of 23 of the oil and gas companies that applied for To protect from bankruptcy in the first half of the year amounted to 30 billion dollars.
Specialists state that the role of producers and their joint cooperation are increasing, whether through "OPEC +" or attempts to expand the bloc to include new members, in light of the growing doubts about the future of oil demand, making the problem of restoring balance in the market a difficult and continuous task, noting that the meeting of the Committee to monitor production reduction This month will be pivotal because it is the first month in which the market is reassessed after the start of easing production curbs.
Seifen Schimmel, The director of the German company VG Industry says"The rapid return of corona infections in the world has led to a continuation of negative sentiment and reinforced fears for economic growth, especially as improved demand for oil and economic recovery have come widely lukewarm in recent weeks. He pointed out that the current state of weakness extended in its effects on many aspects of the industry and related services, for example, the suffering of oilfield services, for example, and it is the most vulnerable at present.
He added that "the oilfield services face special and severe suffering due to their almost complete dependence on upstream investments, as exploration and production activity in the United States has decreased significantly, which forced service providers to reduce the prices of their services in order to continue and survive and help producers reduce their losses." Upstream projects in the US shale oil sector are currently suffering the most in light of the volatile market situation and in light of the difficulty of prices recovering to the enhanced levels of investment recovery again.
For this part, Robin Noble, The director of the consulting firm Oxera International, says"The downward pressures on prices are still strong, which led to a drop in oil prices to below $ 40 a barrel in conjunction with the start of" OPEC + "producers in producing more crude oil, despite The increases were not directed at exports, but they prevented the prices from recovering as many countries are still struggling to contain the epidemic.
He added that the "OPEC +" bloc will pump an increase in production - according to international estimates - recording about 1.5 million barrels per day this month more than last July, in implementation of the decision to ease the record production restrictions that were applied last May and for three months to contain pandemic repercussions Corona ", pointing out that, in contrast, the demand is still in a troubling situation where international reports indicate a decline in diesel sales in India increased by 21 percent, from July of the previous year, which reveals serious difficulties in the recovery of demand in one of the largest consumers in the world.
Andreas Gross, Thr director of international relations at the German company MAMAC, said that the issue of improving demand indicators is the concern of all concerned with the global oil market, pointing to expectations of Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil betting that a full recovery in demand may be delayed until next year, Plans to restart two refineries in California and New Mexico have also been canceled, amid concerns that fuel demand is unlikely to reach pre-epidemic levels this year.
He pointed out that the geopolitical risks in the market are still present and exacerbate the instability significantly, especially with the persistence of tensions between Washington and Beijing and the exchange of accusations on national security issues and responsibility for the spread of the pandemic in addition to the broad difficulties facing American production in light of the banks' increasing refusal to finance this troubled industry.
"The current economic cycle is the most difficult in the history of the oil industry, and OPEC has described it as the unprecedented seventh session, and some international studies have stated that since people started using oil we have not seen anything As before, "the depth of the crisis is usually the absence of a guide for similar crises so that it can be followed, and the time span of the crisis is not known.
She pointed out that, in such an environment, it is natural for caution to be the dominant feature of the dealings of each of the sellers, buyers, lenders, and shareholders, pointing to the determined efforts made by the producer alliance "OPEC +" towards raising the level of compliance with production cuts and limiting productivity increases to local consumption and work. Tirelessly to limit and restrict oil exports, to avoid a return to oversupply in light of the current demand suffering so that the market does not slide back to a record low level of oil price.
At 0655 GMT, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were four cents lower, or 0.1 percent, at $ 40.97 a barrel, while Brent crude contracts fell 11 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $ 44.04 a barrel.
The decline comes after West Texas rose 1.8 percent and Brent 1.5 percent on Thursday, thanks to better-than-expected data for industrial activity in Asia, Europe, and the United States, showing factories emerging from the worst early repercussions of the Coronavirus.
"On the demand side, we have obtained encouraging data for the global manufacturing sector, but there is still some evidence that the recovering demand for oil has faltered in a few markets with renewed growth of Covid-19," said Lachlan Shaw, Director of Commodities Research at the National Bank of Australi.
On the other hand, OPEC crude basket increased and recorded a price of $ 44.02 a barrel yesterday, compared to $ 43.02 a barrel the day before.
The daily report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said yesterday that the price of the basket, which includes the average prices of 13 crudes from the production of member states in the organization, achieved its second consecutive rise, and that the basket gained about one dollar compared to the same day last week, in which it was registered 43.14 dollars a barrel.